Striking at the Status Quo

The Trump administration has been building up an immense U.S. military presence in the Caribbean and steadily ramping-up attacks on alleged narco-trafficking vessels. But do these strikes aim to tackle the drug trade or to dismantle the Venezuelan regime--or both? Join us as we discuss what's behind the latest U.S. military strikes in the Caribbean and the implications of what might happen next.

Transcript

Julia (00:01)

Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has been building up an immense U.S. military presence in the Caribbean. Now, almost every day, we wake up to news that the military has attacked another alleged narco-trafficking vessel. But whether or not these strikes are just about curbing the drug trade remains in question, and I'm here today with Jack Devine to help sort through what's happening in the waters south of our border.

Jack, what do you think the Trump administration is hoping to accomplish with these strikes on vessels in the Caribbean?

Jack Devine (00:36)

I think it's important for the audience to know that I'm not a Johnny come lately, that I actually been covering counter narcotics for many years, have intense interest in it and I've written to it often. But I was Chief of the Counter Narcotics Center in its heyday when Pablo Escobar met his demise and ran Latin American operations for another two years against the narcotraffickers. So you're looking at somebody that is for taking a really hard stance with narcotraffickers…What I think they're trying to do is to attack the movement of drugs and that they're going after the narcotraffickers will have full force, something that I've been advocating for a long time.

Julia (01:12)

Should these strikes then require congressional approval?

Jack Devine (01:16)

This is a question really about the use of force. And this isn't exactly covert action, but we're now starting to redefine it differently. I think it's always wise to brief Congress on action items, whether it's war, whether it's covert action. So approval is the tricky word, right? But they certainly should be fully informed. There should be full debate. And Congress are big boys. They should stand up if they have trouble with it. But I think there's a general consensus among the American people and in Congress that doing something real instead of the same old approach is highly desirable. So this can't be the end. I mean, how many, people are you going to blow up? How much is it going to change it? But it's a hell of a sign. It's hell of a warning.

Julia (01:57)

I know that some people who are opposed to the current actions the administration is taking would argue that our drug problem is not really coming out of Venezuela. Something like 75 % of fentanyl entering the United States originates in Mexico, and about 80 % of the cocaine is coming out of Colombia. And in that case, Venezuela is really sort of a marginal player here.

Jack Devine (02:22)

First, I would state the real problem is domestic consumption. So, we have to tackle it there. But if you go after it abroad, you have to realize how flexible and versatile the narcotic traffickers are. If we go after them in Colombia, they go to Venezuela. If we go after Mexico, they go to Venezuela. So you're looking perhaps at a transition and where are the easy pickings? And Venezuela has a dual purpose. One, they have a drug problem and that's a dictatorship. Mexico has a drug problem but has a democratic government. Colombia has issues. So I think it's just too simplistic to market off in percentages. And those percentages are only good as the day they were written.

Julia (03:00)

Over the next few days and weeks. Should we expect that the US military will take this next step and actually go into Venezuela and conduct some sort of land strikes there?

Jack Devine (03:13)

Well, that sounds like war to me. And maybe you do need to go down to Congress and get approval, right? I happen to be a proponent of it. I've written very recently about Mexico saying we should be going with force against the drug traffickers in Mexico, but with the Mexicans, right? Here there are no with Venezuelans. The Venezuelans are hostile to us. Their interests are not aligned with ours. In fact, they're quite contrary--they have been very undemocratic in their country. So I don't think there's any way that we can go together. But if we want to stop them, then I would say take it to land. I'm not sure I would use the whole naval fleet to do it. But I think I would start picking away at strategic targets using drones or something. I don't see the big reason to have our hands tied. And I think Congressional support is there. And it's a lesson to the whole hemisphere--the Americans are coming now. They're really coming after this target. If it's limited to Venezuela, I'll be surprised.

Julia (04:07)

I think there's a million dollar question right now, Jack, which is how much our efforts in the Caribbean are underscored by a greater desire to overthrow the Maduro regime in Venezuela. And these are two separate things happening, of course, going after narco-trafficking and going after this autocratic leader that stands in staunch opposition to a lot of the democratic norms that our current leaders, thinking here like Marco Rubio, of course, are against overtly. Are these issues conflated, or are they connected?

Jack Devine (04:38)

As Gerald Ford said, you can chew gum and walk, I think they're concurrent. There's no reason you have to have one or the other. And to me, what is clear is the drug traffic. You go after the narcotics people, you hit them, you take them out, you thumb your nose at the government because they thumbed it at you and there's no reason to be concerned about it. The second side of it, let's not dilly-dally around the issue. And that is, Maduro is an evil force in Latin America, right? This is not a friend of ours. He's hostile actually to our interest. And the democratic forces there want him out. The democratic forces in the United States, in the world, they just gave the Nobel peace prize to the opposition. So there's a lot to be said for muscling Maduro, right? And the president's been very blunt about it. My concern is that, tell me how you're gonna do it. You have to get your plumbing in there. The circumstances on the ground have to be right. It can't be just a spark. So I'm hoping the administration is thinking through the implications of it and that frankly, the use of our military might is all designed to weaken Maduro, psychologically and make forces within his own system, change the system. But right now we can't be dabbling with just light a match type of things cause a lot of trouble and Maduro will fall. I've heard that nonsense over and over again. I walked people out the door every time they raised it.

Julia (06:02)

What would it take to have successful regime change in Venezuela? What are the prerequisites there from your experience?

Jack Devine (06:11)

What are the chances of success? Are the indigenous people ready to fight? Do we have all the wherewithal? And the American people behind us, do we have congressional approval? Are we ready to go all the way or are we going to just dabble? And what are the consequences of bloodshed? So these are hard decisions and people have to come back and I will tell you firsthand that President Nixon told Dick Helms when we were looking at Chile many years ago, just give it a try. We know it's hard, just give it a try. And there's many good things we can say about President Nixon and Henry Kissinger, but I disagree 100 % with just give it a college try.

Julia (06:54)

Well, Jack, you have witnessed firsthand what it means to sort of replace a leader who we dislike or to encourage that that leader is overthrown and then that particular leader is replaced by somebody, even worse or just as bad. Do you see something like that potentially happening in Venezuela?

Jack Devine (07:13)

Would you please take your thumb out of my eye? That was a terrible rendition of what took place in Chile. I've written a couple of books that really tell the story, not that version. But let me go to your basic premise. That's absolutely right. You have to anticipate.

Julia (07:22)

I’ve read your version, Jack!

Jack Devine (07:29)

What are the consequences? This is actually one of the basic principles of this in my writing. And that is, are there unintended consequences? Are we going to come out of it worse than we go into it? So don't go into a war, ground war, and we won't start to name them. And if you come out worse than you go in, that's lousy policy. We better have a pretty good idea of what comes out behind Maduro. I'm the voice of optimism just in case others haven't figured out. I think we would come out ahead without Maduro.

Julia (07:57)

I hope that you're correct. We all need more optimistic spirit these days. And on that note, I wanted to wrap it up with a final question, which takes what's happening in the Caribbean and expands it more broadly. What is the message that our current military buildup sends to Latin America? Leaders in Colombia like Gustavo Petro, are they correct to assert that this current degree of US aggression is going to destabilize the whole region?

Jack Devine (08:24)

I lived in five of the countries. I just love Latin America. We always felt neglected. But when I looked at it from a macro level when I was running worldwide operations, I always felt we were not spending enough time and attention to just how important Latin America is. It's our natural ally.

And make sure you're doing things at home. I understand why we're not in America. I understand why we're fighting wars in different places, but good old Latin America, we take them little bit too much for granted. And what I'm saying is now they have Rubio in there at a moment in history and everyone's saying, God, they love us. Oh, wait, wait, wait. Maybe we didn't want you to love us quite that much. But I think on balance, I think Latins like the fact that America is standing tall and standing tall against people like Maduro. So I have a feeling that, in our academic halls of learning, we have one view of Latin America, but we had to go down in the Yucatan or down into the valleys of La Paz and ask what do you think? I remember being on an island, I'll finish on this, out in the middle of the Pacific ocean, an island off of the coast of Chile. And I walked into this poor farmer's house--there was a picture of Franklin D. Roosevelt. This was in the seventies, Franklin Roosevelt, long we'd gone. I'm just saying we sometimes underestimate this love. I don't want to say hate, it's love and ambivalence with Latin America. And I think it's about time we gave them a big hug. Maybe don't squeeze them too much, but I think it's time for a big hug.

Julia (09:51)

Thanks, Jack. We're certainly seeing China's embrace expand throughout Latin America and in places like Central Asia, where the global power competition remains really alive. So it'll be interesting to see how this administration approaches our strategy in Venezuela and how that might impact the greater competition that's at play here.

Jack Devine (10:11)

After the dust settles, which I hope will be the case in Ukraine, and after whatever happens to Maduro, all roads will lead to China and United States. And we have to have great statesmen on both sides to weather this storm, because all the ingredients are there for conflict, physical conflict, and I think that's unacceptable to all. So I think it's going to take a great deal of imagination and statesmen and I hope our folks are up to it.

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