The Business of Peace

Recent peace plans and talks in Moscow are building more momentum towards a deal, but are we there yet? This week, we discuss the current state of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, including the implications of territorial concessions, the role of Europe in the conflict, and the influence of President Trump. We also explore the challenges facing Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and what it might take to ensure a successful future for Ukraine--and for the broader region.

Transcript

Julia (00:01)
This week, two of President Trump's closest advisors, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, traveled to Moscow and spent over five hours in a discussion with Russian President Putin that comes on the heels of the latest U.S. proposed peace plan. Witkoff has met with Putin multiple times, but Kushner is new to this one. And we remember how Kushner was instrumental in ultimately bringing about a ceasefire in Gaza. So the pressure really seems to be on.

Jack, do you think there's real momentum towards peace right now, or is this just more of the same?

Jack Devine (00:38)
I think the key word is real. I do think there is momentum. I think I've felt it for long time. It's an existential view and that is in international relations and negotiations, there's a moment where things just seem to be moving on their own. Everybody's exhausted and tired of the war. it's inside of a legal case, the region appointed said, okay, we'll get there. So yeah, I think there's momentum. I think we're going to get there.

Am I betting the house on it? No. And I know people are looking at the results or the ingredients as failure and I have big problem with that.

Julia (01:12)
Well, let's talk about what's actually on the table. The leaked framework shows some pretty stark concessions that would be required of Ukraine.

Jack Devine (01:22)
Territory is one of the key issues, right? And what you do with your army, where's the line? So those that have been, we have so many faithful followers of Straight from the Shoulder because of the zippity doo that you bring to the show, they'll know that for a long time we have been talking about this thing is gonna end about wherever the battlefield line is, right? If you don't have territory, how do you start arguing for it, right? I mean, it was really critically important that the Ukrainians should do things. They had to hold the line. Well, at the negotiating table, gotta have, items that you're in a position of, you know, of ultimate strength to demand those.

Julia (01:57)
Given that this war has been going on now for four years, which is something you and I have spoken about, Jack, and which is an interesting topic in itself. What is it that Putin needs to see in this deal right now to sign on?

Jack Devine (02:11)
Well, own history, his own people are going to decide how good this war was when it's over. But he's paying one tremendous price for really relatively still small areas of territory. let me take a look at the Donbas and the Crimea. 10 years, the Russians have had possession of the Crimea. If you ask me on day one of the invasion, I've never seen the Ukrainians aren't getting it back for a long time. Okay. Donbas is really a heavily populated Russian heritage area. The Ukrainian nationalists that were there, have long been gone. Okay. So tell me again, how you get Donbas back on the battlefield?

Now, what would be nice for balance in it is the Ukrainians got some territory back. And it does seem that there've been some discussions about that. So I think, people have to stand back and say, what is the reality of this? I actually think at the end of the day, if you were to poll the Ukrainian people today, if you said, here's, you can take a similar amount of territory, which may not mean the same, they would say, look, I think we're ready. We'll get it back later. You know, maybe our great grand children.

Julia (03:20)
And what about Zelenskyy himself? What does he need to secure a deal?

Jack Devine (03:25)
Well, again, you know, the famous Zelenskyy visit at the White House and Trump said it right in front of the public. And he said, you don't have cards, right? And that sounds shocking, but he was honest. you have to believe what he says sometimes. I realize it's sometimes hyper, but the question is really what is the future of Zelenskyy? So my understanding within 90 days, there has to be an election. Ukraine has been troubled in the area of corruption. I mean, Ukraine has always been ranked and always in modern times near the bottom. Unfortunately, this important scandal that took place goes right into the inner working team of Zelenskyy. It's going down very, very poorly. He's going to have a hard time being in that race and prevailing. And second, I think he's going to witness the next level of pressure from the United States and Europe saying, listen, you know, we've invested a lot in this country. You've served your country well. Get out of the way for the country. I think there's going to be the thumb on the scale.

Julia (04:28)
And should we be concerned that a Russian sort of pawn might be placed in a leadership position in Ukraine?

Jack Devine (04:34)
I'm not, I'm not because they're not as good as that, but what do we want to see out of Ukraine? What do you Ukrainian people want to see? What does Europe want to see? We want to see a healthy democracy led in a new way, right? It can't be rebuilt to the pre Russian Ukraine. You need to get a new generation of people. And I'm not talking, Zelenskyy's young, but I'm talking across the board you need new leadership. You need to be committed to rooting out corruption. There's a tremendous and exciting rebuild that lies ahead for Ukraine. There's not an exciting rebuild for Russia, let me tell you that. But that is rooted on a change.

Julia (05:16)
It sort of seems like a stalemate has been in place for quite a long time at this point, Jack. How many years can this go on for? Is there something that's in the works right now that would really shift that calculus for either Ukraine or Russia?

Jack Devine (05:31)
I think we're at a moment where the Russians are actually making some progress. Two things after four years, not knowing much about drones. They now, it's not just knowing drones, you have to know how to fight them. You know, the best fighters that use drones are the Ukrainians. They have a population problem. don't have enough Ukrainians, soldiers to do this. Russia has just relied on its old formula, which is just throw as many people as you have to just keep throwing them until they all die or we win. So right now I think they're making progress in the drone arena. When you look at the Kremlin today, he has to ask himself, how do I turn what I have into a victory? And right now, I keep doing what I'm doing until the Americans and Europeans say uncle and that the Ukrainians ran out of people.

Julia (06:17)
Let's talk about somebody else who would probably like to claim a victory here, and that's President Trump. President Trump needs a deal, or he's advocated for a deal, you know, he kind of promised a deal even before he assumed office, stating that he would have one right away. What does he need right now to move forward?

Jack Devine (06:38)
I'm sure he's not contemplating what he needs. I think we're gonna have two things at play. Our media is gonna say it was a failure and he's gonna declare it- No one in history has ever had a more successful victory, okay? But I have some very influential Ukrainian friends and they actually think it's time for the deal and that they're close to it. All right, so I think Putin will declare victory and it won't be a full victory, we'll be saying there was a hands-down victory and it won't be, which then creates for me the dynamic of The deal and law and that is both parties will agree to this deal. I want peace. think the world wants peace. I think the Russians want peace.

Putin doesn't, you know, and some of the people that are wrong-sided, if you will, on this side want us to lose, which I've just never come to peace with it. So I think we're close. I think it's a real deal. But I've never walked out of a good deal of two big giants where one was really thrilled and the other unhappy or both of them happy. I've always watched them walk out unhappy until a year later and they come back and say, well, God, we made that deal after all. And that's what I think we have here.

Julia (07:49)
Okay. Well, I'm very curious to kind of isolate what is different at this moment. And one of the variables we haven't spoken about, Jack, is Europe itself. And Europe has basically been under a shadow war of attack ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. There's been all kinds of sabotage against NATO critical infrastructure, supply chains, logistics, transportation in places like Germany, France, Poland...the Europeans need some kind of security guarantees, right? Or they need to be offering Ukraine some kind of security guarantees. There's two things happening. The Europeans have their own stake in this game. How do you see them impacting whatever deal is agreed upon?

Jack Devine (08:32)
Well, we should talk about this because you've really hit one of the huge successes of- I would use, the Alaska formula. If you're sitting and you're watching how the war started and the way Russia stood and what was Europe like? We've seen a major transformation. I mean, even close to what anybody could possibly imagine. You have a Europe pulling together, united around a common theme, a common enemy, working with the United States. even I want to say, and in tune with America. They showed up in Alaska on a minute call. So Europe is playing in this game. They're not sitting back saying, well, let the Americans take care of it. This is changing history. And Trump is saying, I want you to do that. You go do that because I think that's good for all of us. I wish we kept a little more in the game. I mean, we have a lot in the game, but I wish we had more in it, which would make it better. But I think you're looking at a historic change with Europe, and it's a positive one.

And you want to talk about the defeats where Putin saw that one as a victory, that Europe is united with the Americans and the free world against you and this little small economy that you have on the world and in the future. That's can hardly be viewed as a victory.

Julia (09:39)
But the Europeans have their own counter proposal, Jack in it. They want stronger security guarantees. They're pushing back on this concept of forcing Ukraine to demilitarize. They're insisting that any deal affecting NATO or the EU requires their consent. And Russia calls this a non-starter. So while the Europeans might be doing something that's to the benefit of America and sort of our defense spending, what happens there? Is that an obstacle?

Jack Devine (10:01)
My point is that's not where the decision's going to be made. It's not going to be made in Berlin, London. That isn't the game. Their strongest card is united with us. And the security agreement, Ukraine can't be part of NATO. They never could. I want to go back. You never could have gotten Crimea. You were never going to be back. You were not going to be in NATO. But there's all types of other security arrangements which are working on. So I think when this is over, I mean, is Putin really going to begin to form a new army so he can invade? And I think his people, he's exhausted. And I just don't see that.

Julia (10:39)
And what is the best scenario here moving forward as you see it?

Jack Devine (10:44)
I think if you can get to an agreement where they're satisfied, including the Russians, and Putin is the most unpredictable person in all of this. Okay. I don't care what analysis he gets. You don't know what's in his mind because you would have said, you know, a rational person wouldn't have done it in the first place. But my point is he's the fly in the ointment. But I think we're at that point where once the deal is cut, you'll see how more satisfied people become as their lives start to come back to a normal way of life. So I think we're pretty close to it. Putin, he's the wild card. I'm not worried about Europe and Ukrainians not coming to a wholesome agreement. I'm worried that Putin somehow thinks there's one more thing he can squeeze out of the play because he's not a clear winner.

He didn't accomplish his objectives. If you're a general and you don't take the hill, you take up half the hill, it's like, that was nice for a week and then people remember you didn't take the other half.

Julia (11:46)
Thanks, Jack. We'll certainly be continuing to track all of the latest developments here.